Continuing from my last post is the 2013 Fantasy Foresite mock draft. Oh boy do these rounds get interesting. During the middle of the draft we learn who has done their homework and who… hasn’t. It becomes obvious who is using a certain strategy and who are just picking up players. Here is how rounds three and four went:
|20||Seth Coleman||Dez Bryant||WR5|
|21||Mitch Morrison||Cam Newton||QB4|
|22||Corey White||Tom Brady||QB5|
|23||Todd Goldsmith||Steven Ridlay||RB14|
|24||Chad Bertelkamp||Andre Johnson||WR6|
|25||Tyler Vickery||Brandon Marshall||WR7|
|26||Jeff Rees||Roddy White||WR8|
|27||Jake Wheet||Frank Gore||RB15|
|28||Kevin Johnson||Chris Johnson||RB16|
|29||Derek Carpenter||Percy Harvin||WR9|
|30||Derek Carpenter||Jimmy Graham||TE1|
|31||Kevin Johnson||Victor Cruz||WR10|
|32||Jake Wheet||David Wilson||RB17|
|33||Jeff Rees||Randall Cobb||WR11|
|34||Tyler Vickery||Reggie Bush||RB18|
|35||Chad Bertelkamp||Darren McFadden||RB19|
|36||Todd Goldsmith||Demaryius Thomas||WR12|
|37||Corey White||Wes Welker||WR13|
|38||Mitch Morrison||Reggie Wayne||WR14|
|39||Seth Coleman||Dwayne Bowe||WR15|
At the beginning of the draft I wouldn’t think anyone would go RB-RB-RB but when Stevan Ridley is sitting there in third round, how do you pass him up? I can’t blame Todd, heck his top three running backs are Martin, Jackson and Ridley, that is a hell of a running back core. Even more, Todd still gets a top WR in the fourth round! His team is my favorite this far into the draft.
Not too many picks were head scratchers in these rounds. But for the sake of analysis, Reggie Bush going this early is a surprise. Being a standard league the fourth round is high for Reggie Bush, if this were a point per reception league it would be different. Bush won’t score too often this year with teammate Mikel Leshoure expected to get the majority of goal line carries.
One theme of the draft was over valuing wide receivers and undervaluing running backs. In a standard scoring format, running backs score more points than wide receivers. Five running backs scored at least fifteen more points than the top wide receiver, Calvin Johnson,did last year. Combine this information with the facts of wide receiver being very deep and running back being very shallow, the way these positions are valued should be opposite. Overvalue running backs and undervalue wide receivers.
|40||Seth Coleman||Colin Kaepernick||QB6|
|41||Mitch Morrison||Marques Colston||WR16|
|42||Corey White||Lamar Miller||RB20|
|43||Todd Goldsmith||Jordy Nelson||WR17|
|44||Chad Bertelkamp||Russell Wilson||QB7|
|45||Tyler Vickery||Vincent Jackson||WR18|
|46||Jeff Rees||Montee Ball||RB21|
|47||Jake Wheet||Hakeem Nicks||WR19|
|48||Kevin Johnson||Eric Decker||WR20|
|49||Derek Carpenter||DeMarco Murray||RB22|
|50||Derek Carpenter||Darren Sproles||RB23|
|51||Kevin Johnson||Rashard Mendenhall||RB24|
|52||Jake Wheet||Mike Wallace||WR21|
|53||Jeff Rees||Vick Ballard||RB25|
|54||Tyler Vickery||Rob Gronkowski||TE2|
|55||Chad Bertelkamp||DeSean Jackson||WR22|
|56||Todd Goldsmith||Aaron Hernandez||TE3|
|57||Corey White||Antonio Brown||WR23|
|58||Mitch Morrison||Danny Amendola||WR24|
|59||Seth Coleman||Ryan Matthews||RB26|
Rounds five and six are pretty interesting. Due to the overvaluing of wide receivers in earlier rounds, teams began stretching for running backs. Mendenhall, Miller and Ballard were all taken at least two rounds earlier than their ADP (Average Draft Position). Corey had already drafted two wide receivers, so he had to go running back. I am not sure how he passed on Ball or Sproles, two running backs on much better offenses than the Miami Dolphins. Murray cannot stay healthy, I understand why he passed on him. Corey’s second round pick of Larry Fitzgerald changed the layout of the draft for him.
Tyler took a flyer on Gronk and I like the pick. If Gronk plays only 14 games he will still be the highest scoring tightend in the game. Todd gets very unlucky with the Hernandez pick, as he was just released from the Patriots. In Todd’s defense he picked Aaron over a week ago. Sproles and Murray fall to me and after six rounds I have four running backs.
My two favorite teams so far in the draft are Seth’s (pick one) and Mitch’s (pick two). Seth: A.P., Forte, Dez, Bowe, Kaepernick, and Matthews at the flex. Seth’s team is full of studs. A.P. led the league with 2097 rushing yards last year, Dez has the potential to be the number one wide receiver, Kaepernick took the league by leading the 49ers to the Superbowl. For Mitch: Rice, MJD, Cam, Wayne, Closton, and Amendola. Mitch’s team has a couple of questions marks with MJD’s health, Amendola’s freak injuries, Wayne’s new coordinator and Bernard Pierce coming along. Even with all the question marks I love this team. MJD will bounce back, Wayne may never stop playing and as long as Amendola is on the field, Brady will be feeding him the ball.
|60||Seth Coleman||Steve Smith||WR25|
|61||Mitch Morrison||Tony Gonzalez||TE4|
|62||Corey White||Jason Witten||TE5|
|63||Todd Goldsmith||Le’Veon Bell||RB27|
|64||Chad Bertelkamp||Pierre Garcon||WR26|
|65||Tyler Vickery||Torrey Smith||WR27|
|66||Jeff Rees||Ben Green-Ellis||RB28|
|67||Jake Wheet||Greg Jennings||WR28|
|68||Kevin Johnson||Matt Stafford||QB8|
|69||Derek Carpenter||Cecil Shorts||WR29|
|70||Derek Carpenter||Chris Ivory||RB29|
|71||Kevin Johnson||Giovanni Bernard||RB30|
|72||Jake Wheet||Eddie Lacy||RB31|
|73||Jeff Rees||Justin Blackmon||WR30|
|74||Tyler Vickery||Zac Stacy||RB32|
|75||Chad Bertelkamp||Vernon Davis||TE6|
|76||Todd Goldsmith||Matt Ryan||QB9|
|77||Corey White||Josh Gordon||WR31|
|78||Mitch Morrison||James Jones||WR32|
|79||Seth Coleman||Jeremy Maclin||WR33|
The strategy of waiting on a Quarterback worked out well for Kevin and Todd. Each picking up a top ten quarterback in the middle rounds. These two rounds were also the rounds of the rookie running backs. Six running backs were drafted during these two rounds and four of those were rookies. All of the rooks have a chance for a high percentage of their team’s snaps but none of them have officially won the starting job. Bell and Lacy have the most upside of this group. Bernard and Stacy are more likely to be fantasy relevant in 2014.
Pierre Garcon in the sixth round is higher than he is currently being drafted but I love the pick. Garcon, when healthy, has the potential to be top twenty wide receiver. Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten in the sixth round are great value! Gonzo is a machine, the Albert Pujols of fantasy football. He never gets old!
Rounds 9-16 are still shaping up. Be on the lookout for the that post. In the meantime send any questions, blog ideas, comments, and concerns to firstname.lastname@example.org.