Mock Draft: Rounds Third-Eighth

Continuing from my last post is the 2013 Fantasy Foresite mock draft.  Oh boy do these rounds get interesting.  During the middle of the draft we learn who has done their homework and who… hasn’t.  It becomes obvious who is using a certain strategy and who are just picking up players. Here is how rounds three and four went:

Round 3
20 Seth Coleman Dez Bryant WR5
21 Mitch Morrison Cam Newton QB4
22 Corey White Tom Brady QB5
23 Todd Goldsmith Steven Ridlay RB14
24 Chad Bertelkamp Andre Johnson WR6
25 Tyler Vickery Brandon Marshall WR7
26 Jeff Rees Roddy White WR8
27 Jake Wheet Frank Gore RB15
28 Kevin Johnson Chris Johnson RB16
29 Derek Carpenter Percy Harvin WR9
Round 4
30 Derek Carpenter Jimmy Graham TE1
31 Kevin Johnson Victor Cruz WR10
32 Jake Wheet David Wilson RB17
33 Jeff Rees Randall Cobb WR11
34 Tyler Vickery Reggie Bush RB18
35 Chad Bertelkamp Darren McFadden RB19
36 Todd Goldsmith Demaryius Thomas WR12
37 Corey White Wes Welker WR13
38 Mitch Morrison Reggie Wayne WR14
39 Seth Coleman Dwayne Bowe WR15

At the beginning of the draft I wouldn’t think anyone would go RB-RB-RB but when Stevan Ridley is sitting there in third round, how do you pass him up? I can’t blame Todd, heck his top three running backs are Martin, Jackson and Ridley, that is a hell of a running back core.  Even more, Todd still gets a top WR in the fourth round!  His team is my favorite this far into the draft.

Not too many picks were head scratchers in these rounds. But for the sake of analysis, Reggie Bush going this early is a surprise.  Being a standard league the fourth round is high for Reggie Bush, if this were a point per reception league it would be different.  Bush won’t score too often this year with teammate Mikel Leshoure expected to get the majority of goal line carries.

One theme of the draft was over valuing wide receivers and undervaluing running backs. In a standard scoring format, running backs score more points than wide receivers.  Five running backs scored at least fifteen more points than the top wide receiver, Calvin Johnson,did last year.  Combine this information with the facts of wide receiver being very deep and running back being very shallow, the way these positions are valued should be opposite. Overvalue running backs and undervalue wide receivers.

Round 5
40 Seth Coleman Colin Kaepernick QB6
41 Mitch Morrison Marques Colston WR16
42 Corey White Lamar Miller RB20
43 Todd Goldsmith Jordy Nelson WR17
44 Chad Bertelkamp Russell Wilson QB7
45 Tyler Vickery Vincent Jackson WR18
46 Jeff Rees Montee Ball RB21
47 Jake Wheet Hakeem Nicks WR19
48 Kevin Johnson Eric Decker WR20
49 Derek Carpenter DeMarco Murray RB22
Round 6
50 Derek Carpenter Darren Sproles RB23
51 Kevin Johnson Rashard Mendenhall RB24
52 Jake Wheet Mike Wallace WR21
53 Jeff Rees Vick Ballard RB25
54 Tyler Vickery Rob Gronkowski TE2
55 Chad Bertelkamp DeSean Jackson WR22
56 Todd Goldsmith Aaron Hernandez TE3
57 Corey White Antonio Brown WR23
58 Mitch Morrison Danny Amendola WR24
59 Seth Coleman Ryan Matthews RB26

Rounds five and six are pretty interesting.  Due to the overvaluing of wide receivers in earlier rounds, teams began stretching for running backs.  Mendenhall, Miller and Ballard were all taken at least two rounds earlier than their ADP (Average Draft Position).   Corey had already drafted two wide receivers, so he had to go running back.  I am not sure how he passed on Ball or Sproles, two running backs on much better offenses than the Miami Dolphins. Murray cannot stay healthy, I understand why he passed on him.  Corey’s second round pick of Larry Fitzgerald changed the layout of the draft for him.

Tyler took a flyer on Gronk and I like the pick.  If Gronk plays only 14 games he will still be the highest scoring tightend in the game.  Todd gets very unlucky with the Hernandez pick, as he was just released from the Patriots.  In Todd’s defense he picked Aaron over a week ago. Sproles and Murray fall to me and after six rounds I have four running backs.

My two favorite teams so far in the draft are Seth’s (pick one) and Mitch’s (pick two).  Seth: A.P., Forte, Dez, Bowe, Kaepernick, and Matthews at the flex. Seth’s team is full of studs.  A.P. led the league with 2097 rushing yards last year, Dez has the potential to be the number one wide receiver, Kaepernick took the league by leading the 49ers to the Superbowl. For Mitch: Rice, MJD, Cam, Wayne, Closton, and Amendola.  Mitch’s team has a couple of questions marks with MJD’s health, Amendola’s freak injuries, Wayne’s new coordinator and Bernard Pierce coming along.  Even with all the question marks I love this team.  MJD will bounce back, Wayne may never stop playing and as long as Amendola is on the field, Brady will be feeding him the ball.

Round 7
60 Seth Coleman Steve Smith WR25
61 Mitch Morrison Tony Gonzalez TE4
62 Corey White Jason Witten TE5
63 Todd Goldsmith Le’Veon Bell RB27
64 Chad Bertelkamp Pierre Garcon WR26
65 Tyler Vickery Torrey Smith WR27
66 Jeff Rees Ben Green-Ellis RB28
67 Jake Wheet Greg Jennings WR28
68 Kevin Johnson Matt Stafford QB8
69 Derek Carpenter Cecil Shorts WR29
Round 8
70 Derek Carpenter Chris Ivory RB29
71 Kevin Johnson Giovanni Bernard RB30
72 Jake Wheet Eddie Lacy RB31
73 Jeff Rees Justin Blackmon WR30
74 Tyler Vickery Zac Stacy RB32
75 Chad Bertelkamp Vernon Davis TE6
76 Todd Goldsmith Matt Ryan QB9
77 Corey White Josh Gordon WR31
78 Mitch Morrison James Jones WR32
79 Seth Coleman Jeremy Maclin WR33

The strategy of waiting on a Quarterback worked out well for Kevin and Todd. Each picking up a top ten quarterback in the middle rounds.  These two rounds were also the rounds of the rookie running backs. Six running backs were drafted during these two rounds and four of those were rookies.  All of the rooks have a chance for a high percentage of their team’s snaps but none of them have officially won the starting job.  Bell and Lacy have the most upside of this group.  Bernard and Stacy are more likely to be fantasy relevant in 2014.

Pierre Garcon in the sixth round is higher than he is currently being drafted but I love the pick.  Garcon, when healthy, has the potential to be top twenty wide receiver.  Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten in the sixth round are great value!  Gonzo is a machine, the Albert Pujols of fantasy football.  He never gets old!

Rounds 9-16 are still shaping up.  Be on the lookout for the that post.  In the meantime send any questions, blog ideas, comments, and concerns to fantasyforesite@gmail.com.

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Mock Draft: First Two Rounds

The Fantasy Foresite Mock Draft has finally begun and the first round is over! Owners are drafting their teams as if they were playing in a standard 10-team league starting one Quarterback, two Running Backs, two Wide Receivers, one Tightend, one Kicker, one Defense/Special Teams and seven bench positions.

The draft order is as follows.

1. Seth Coleman

2. Mitch Morrison

3. Corey White

4. Todd Goldsmith

5. Chad Bertelkamp

6. Tyler Vickery

7. Jeff Rees

8. Jake Wheet

9. Kevin Johnson

10. Derek Carpenter

Here are the results and color commentary:

Pick Owner Round 1
1 Seth Coleman Adrian Peterson
2 Mitch Morrison Ray Rice
3 Corey White Arian Foster
4 Todd Goldsmith Doug Martin
5 Chad Bertelkamp Marshawn Lynch
6 Tyler Vickery LeSean McCoy
7 Jeff Rees Calvin Johnson
8 Jake Wheet Jamaal Charles
9 Kevin Johnson Trent Richardson
10 Derek Carpenter C.J. Spiller

Not too many surprises here. Nine running backs and Megatron going in the first round will be very typical in drafts this year.  Morrison going with Rice over Foster, was a surprise to me but I don’t hate the pick. Foster has had over eleven hundred carries in the past three year including the regular and postseason, making his workload high.  High workload = high fantasy upside. High workload = high risk of injury. Nonetheless, Houston is a run heavy offense with Foster getting nearly every carrier. Rice is a great fantasy player with his receiving ability but I like Foster over Rice.

Jeff taking Calvin at seven was the biggest stretch of the first round, it was also the only stretch of the first round. Megatron is an elite fantasy receiver in a class of his own. Though, I think Jeff will soon see how bad his running back situation will be. He will need some luck picking running backs in the later rounds.

Pick Owner Round 2
11 Derek Carpenter Alfred Morris
12 Kevin Johnson A.J. Green
13 Jake Wheet Aaron Rodgers
14 Jeff Rees Drew Brees
15 Tyler Vickery Peyton Manning
16 Chad Bertelkamp Julio Jones
17 Todd Goldsmith Steven Jackson
18 Corey White Larry Fitzgerald
19 Mitch Morrison Maurice Jones-Drew
20 Seth Coleman Matt Forte

The second round had lots of surprises, I thought my friends were better fantasy players than they might be.  Three Quarterbacks is one, maybe two too many in the second round. Tyler taking Peyton in the second (pick 15)  is a pretty big stretch. I, along with many other experts, have Manning at least one round later. Quarterback is very deep and waiting on one will help create depth at weaker positions like running back and tight end. 

Something I find interesting about the second round is only four running backs were taken. Meaning only four owneres, including myself, went with the old school RB-RB philosophy. Take a look at the RB-RB combos of those teams: 

  • Coleman:  Peterson and Forte
  • Morrison:  Rice and Jones-Drew
  • Goldsmith: Martin and Jackson
  • Carpenter: Spiller and Morris

Those players finished 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 12th, and 16th among running backs last year.  Only MJD and Jackson didn’t make the top fifteen of running backs.  MJD because of his foot injury and Jackson is moving to a better offensive team. The two running backs should be top fifteen and potentially top ten at their position.

The only other big surprise was Corey’s second pick (pick 18) of Larry Fitzgerald. New Coach Bruce Arians will throw the ball more and improve the offense. Larry does have Carson Palmer throwing to him now but Corey passed on MJD, Forte, Ridley, and Marshall.  I do like Fitz but not in the second round. Corey could have took one of those players and then Fitz in the third.

The draft is currently in the seventh round, be on the lookout for more updates on the first Fantasy Foresite mock draft. Please leave any questions and comments below or send them to fantasyforesite@gmail.com

Old Faces, New Places (RB Edition)

Steven Jackson: STL to ATL. Exit Michael Turner. Insert Steven Jackson. Though, very similar in style, the two bruisers are not the same. Jackson has the pass catching skills Turner never had and Jackson hasn’t lost his legs yet, something Turner was losing. Steven has always been underrated playing for the lowly Rams. Moving to the high-powered Falcons offense should give Jackson higher upside right? I think, yes. Many experts are scared of Jackson’s age. I like the upside of being a three down back, catching the ball out of the backfield, and getting goaline carries. Jackson is an early to mid second round pick. For me.

Reggie Bush: MIA to DET. Of the running backs who moved teams this offseason, Reggie is by far the one I am most excited about. He will be a monster in my favorite type of league, PPR scoring. Detroit has led the league in pass attempts the last two years and threw for an NFL record of 740 attempts last year! Bush has a chance to catch eighty or more balls this year, a feat he has already completed once in his career. Reggie should be a top 20 RB this season, maybe even top 25.

Rashard Mendenhall: PIT to ARI. Reports are that Bruce Arians loves Mendenhall. Reportedly saying “he’s a three down back” “he’s a threat every time he touches the ball.” Mendenhall will be the #1 guy for the Cardinals but he won’t be a #1 fantasy running back. Though, where he is going in drafts, eighth or ninth round, his value is high. The addition of Carson Palmer helps Mendenhall, defenses won’t be able to put eight in the box with Larry Fitzgerald on the outside. Also Arians made the Colts offseason look good last year, Palmer isn’t Andrew Luck but I like the Arizona offense to improve.

Chris Ivory: NO to NYJ. At first glance, I was not excited about Ivory going to the Jets. He goes from, a great offense to a terrible offense and from Drew Brees to either Mark Sanchez or Geno Smith. With the Jets have parting ways with Shonne Greene Ivory should be the starter. Adding Mike Goodson into the mix does bring his value down with Goodson likely stealing carriers from Ivory. I am an Ivory believer, 5.1 yards per carrier over his career is well above league average. Add his stats to a run first offense plus value in the fifth round = fantasy sleeper.

Shonne Greene: NYJ to TEN. Greene loses value by going to the Titans and becoming Chris Johnson’s backup (Johnson loses value too). He will likely steal some goaline and short yardage carriers away from Johnson. Greene’s value is decent in old school TD only leagues. However, barring an injury to Johnson, Greene is nothing more than a handcuff or a flex in a deep league. Contrary to everything I just said about Shonne, if Johnson performs terribly Greene will see more touches, giving him some but still little upside.

Top 50 Rankings

Fantasy rankings, every experts and average player’s favorite guessing game. These ranking are the first I have ever done. I have never been the over achiever in my home draft, the guy who made his own rankings. One of my roommates, used to bring his own rankings to our draft. Then I thought he was crazy, now whose crazy? Generally, I’ll just print the latest cheatsheet and take it with me.

This year will be different. By the time draft season comes around I should have three or four blogged mock drafts, a top 300 ranking and a couple thousand words that only my friends who I will drafting against me will read. Maybe I should rethink  letting my friends them know about this.

My rankings are based off of research, experience and advice of fantasy experts. I did not copy and past Matthew Berry’s fantasy rankings and put my name them. I did take his and other rankings into account. These rankings are how I would draft players.

Some general notes:

  • Get a running back in the first round, after the first dozen it gets ugly…quick
  • Wait on Quarterback! The difference between Luck and Rodgers is less than five points a week.
  • If you don’t get Graham, Hernandez, Witten or Gonzo (Gronk will be in this group if he is healthy), be the last to take a TE
  • If I couldn’t decide between a RB or WR, I went RB due to the lack of quality at the position
My Rank Player Name Position Team
1 Adrian Peterson RB MIN
2 Arian Foster RB HOU
3 Marshawn Lynch RB SEA
4 Ray Rice RB BAL
5 Doug Martin RB TB
6 C.J. Spiller RB BUF
7 Jamaal Charles RB KC
8 Alfred Morris RB WAS
9 Trent Richardson RB CLE
10 LeSean McCoy RB PHI
11 Calvin Johnson WR DET
12 Aaron Rodgers QB GB
13 Steven Jackson RB ATL
14 Matt Forte RB CHI
15 A.J. Green WR CIN
16 Drew Brees QB NO
17 Stevan Ridley RB NE
18 Dez Bryant WR DAL
19 Brandon Marshall WR CHI
20 Tom Brady QB NE
21 Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC
22 Frank Gore RB SF
23 Chris Johnson RB TEN
24 Julio Jones WR ATL
25 Percy Harvin WR SEA
26 Demaryius Thomas WR DEN
27 Jimmy Graham TE NO
28 Peyton Manning QB DEN
29 Randall Cobb WR GB
30 Vincent Jackson WR TB
31 Roddy White WR ATL
32 Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI
33 Cam Newton QB CAR
34 Reggie Bush RB DET
35 DeMarco Murray RB DAL
36 Reggie Wayne WR IND
37 Andre Johnson WR HOU
38 Wes Welker WR DEN
39 Victor Cruz WR NYG
40 Rob Gronkowski TE NE
41 Marques Colston WR NO
42 David Wilson RB NYG
43 Michael Crabtree WR SF
44 Montee Ball RB DEN
45 Aaron Hernandez TE NE
46 Colin Kaepernick QB SF
47 Dwayne Bowe WR KC
48 Darren McFadden RB OAK
49 Jordy Nelson WR GB
50 Russell Wilson QB SEA

I Need You!

The first ever Fantasy Foresite Mock Draft will be happening at end of May, (Memorial Day Week/Weekend). Being just one writer, I am in need of some help. I need some fantasy fantasy fanatics.  Do you love fantasy football? Do you love fantasy football enough to do a mock draft four months before the season starts? Yes. and Yes. Awesome! Then you are the man, or woman, I need.

The mock snake draft will consist of either ten or twelve teams. The draft can be done with either ten or twelve owners picking one team OR five or six owners picking two teams and will depend heavily on interest from readers. Not that I expect to have numerous people emailing me to get into the draft, if I do have too many people will have to say no to someone. Sorry, like 2pac said, “That’s just the way it is” .

I have a few friends and family members who I respect in terms of fantasy football.  I will ask some of them to be owners in the mock draft. These people don’t take players like David Garrard number one overall, but that is a for another post. But these guys generally do their homework, keep up with news notes and reports. Those are the types of players I am looking for this draft. 

Also, if the time of the draft conflicts with your schedule but you wish to still be a part of a mock draft, I will be hosting a PPR mock draft next month.

The draft will also likely be a live draft on a website like ESPN, NFL, Yahoo, etc.

Please leave any comments or questions below. If you would like to be a part of this draft send me an email with your availability next week after 7 pm to fantasyforesite@gmail.com.

Welcome

Welcome to Fantasy Foresight, a blog 100% dedicated to fantasy football.

Like most of you reading this, or so I assume, I am not a fantasy football analyst or expert. Unfortunately, no one is paying me to give, what will likely be, mediocre fantasy advice. Wouldn’t that be the life. From what I read and hear from some fantasy experts, followers get quiet upset when experts are wrong. Twitter bashing your favorite fantasy expert has become the new hip thing to do. Thankfully, this blog doesn’t have a Twitter…yet. Maybe, the life of a fantasy analyst isn’t all Calvin Johnson’s, Tom Brady’s and Arian Foster’s. But as long as it isn’t full of butt fumbling Mark Sanchez’s or Beanie “I am never well” Wells I am willing to take the chance. Luckily, I am opinionated, have thick skin and generally don’t care to be wrong.

As far as my expertise goes, I have minimal to none in the fantasy football category. Though, I have been fantasy football for the better part of a decade, my record doesn’t show consistency and is not dominate.  At the most I have three championships and I am counting the free leagues my friends and I played in middle school. I peaked early.  Lucky for me experience doesn’t matter too much in fantasy. How many times have you seen a friend’s girlfriend win a fantasy league? See anyone can do it!

Now, you have some questions. If you are so average at fantasy, why are you blogging about fantasy? The last couple of year I have become obsessive over fantasy football. I want in every and any league. Free or Paid. PPR, Dynasty, or IDP it doesn’t matter. Most Sundays, Mondays and generally every other day during the season consist of me reading every column, post, blog and watching any video or podcast I can find on the every major or minor sports website (ESPN, CBS, NFL, Yahoo!, etc) to find an edge. A majority of them end up being the same topic with different analysts and experts opinions. I can never get enough information about fantasy football.

So what does all of that nonsense mean to you? A blog filled with advice from a mediocre, yet obsessive, fantasy football player who keeps up on everyone’s opinion around the fantasy world.  I’ll have preseason rankings, draft advice, weekly ranknings, reports, etc. just like every other site. On certain days, likely Sunday’s, I will host open threads to talk about who to start. I’ll ask you questions. You can ask me questions. I’ll laugh at your terrible jokes. You will look at me with a blank stare after mine.

Anyway, welcome to the Fantasy Foresite. If you have questions, you can email me at fantasyforesite@gmail.com. Also leave comments or questions below.

Be on the lookout for preseason ranking coming out later this week.